- Main event involves US recession prediction change on crypto markets.
- Odds now at 23% after trade deal confirmation.
- Major stock indices, including Russell 2000, rallied recently.
US recession odds have dropped to 23% in crypto markets like Polymarket, influenced by US-China trade developments confirmed by Donald Trump and favorable US inflation statistics on June 11, 2025.
The shift in recession odds suggests renewed market confidence
affected by recent US-China trade agreements and lower inflation indicators. Traders on Polymarket responded by adjusting predictions significantly, reflecting broader positivity in risk assets.
Polymarket Insights
Polymarket showcased declining recession odds to 23%, correlating with Trump’s trade deal confirmations. Kalshi reported similar trends, underscoring the market’s reaction to geopolitical news. Crypto platforms lacked direct comments from founders, Shayne Coplan or Tarek Mansour. As noted by Shayne Coplan, Founder of Polymarket:
“As of now, there are no official comments regarding the recent shifts in market odds.”
The financial impacts included a notable rise in US stock indices, such as the Russell 2000. Decreased recession predictions have historically prompted positive movements in cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, indicating a favorable environment for risk-sensitive investments.
Expectations pivoted towards reduced hedging in stablecoins, enhancing growth in DeFi protocols. Experts anticipate that such macro events could continue bolstering asset prices across different markets, aligning with past trends seen during economic optimism phases. Crypto assets and DeFi tokens remain beneficiaries of these shifts, often mirroring gains from improved economic relations and market confidence.
The prediction markets remain a barometer for economic sentiment, reacting to political and economic developments. This current adjustment reflects traditional patterns seen in cryptocurrency and trade-focused markets, with continued scrutiny on upcoming trade negotiations and economic reports.
