- An overhang exists with 6.6 to 6.7 million BTC at a loss.
- BTC resistance forms between $93k–$120k, affecting recovery potential.
- Market fragility is heightened by investor positions at a loss.
Approximately 6.6 million Bitcoin were acquired above the current price of $85.6k as of December 2025, leading to a structural supply overhang in the cryptocurrency market.
This situation poses resistance to price recovery and elevates the risk of capitulation among investors holding positions in loss.
An analysis highlights a structural overhang in the Bitcoin market, with approximately 6.6 to 6.7 million BTC purchased above the current price of approximately $85.6k. This accumulation occurs within a $93k to $120k resistance range.
The report reveals 23.7% of BTC supply is held at a loss, creating a psychological barrier against price recovery. The overhang raises concerns of capitulation, potentially leading to increased selling pressure. According to a report by VanEck, "The current resistance is a crucial level that Bitcoin must break through to revisit its previous highs."
The situation affects investors and traders, as a significant portion of the Bitcoin supply remains underwater. The downside risks are amplified, particularly for those who acquired BTC at higher valuation points.
Financial volatility is exacerbated by the current market conditions, leading to potential sharp corrections. The overhang situates Bitcoin in a precarious position, requiring new liquidity or price stability for a turnaround.
Historical precedence in bear markets reflects similar investor strains, often resulting in capitulation selling. Analysts observe that BTC's true market mean hovers around $81.3k, presenting selective demand without considerable accumulation.
With miner hashrate recently dropping sharply, near-term market stress is anticipated, although some analysts view this as a bullish sign. Recovery may demand either absorption of the higher-placed supply or an influx of fresh capital to offset current losses. For more insight, a report considers this overhang a critical barrier to recovery.