- Bitcoin has entered a loss realization phase.
- Macro pressures and financial implications in play.
- Historical context suggests mid-cycle corrections.
Bitcoin has entered a loss realization phase, as highlighted by CryptoQuant’s on-chain data showing a negative shift in its 30-day realized profit and loss metric for the first time since late 2023.
This development signals increased stress among Bitcoin holders due to ongoing macroeconomic pressures, with potential implications for broader market dynamics and investor sentiment.
Bitcoin’s Current Phase
Bitcoin has recently entered a loss realization phase, with its 30-day realized profit and loss metric turning negative for the first time since late 2023. This reflects coins moved on-chain over the past month being sold below acquisition costs.
CryptoQuant, a leading analytics firm, reported this shift in on-chain dynamics. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, noted that Bitcoin holders have been realizing losses for a 30-day period. The BTC-to-gold ratio has also seen a decline. “Bitcoin holders have been realizing losses for a 30-day period since late December — the first time this has happened since October 2023.”
Market Effects and Implications
The immediate market effects include a drop of 11.4% from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $124K. Geopolitical tensions and trade fears have compounded the pressure on late buyers of Bitcoin. Macro pressures, such as a drop in transaction volumes and miner revenue reductions, are evident.
Financial implications include $3.3 billion net outflows from US Bitcoin ETFs in Q3/Q4 2025. Meanwhile, long-term holders are exiting at record sales, shifting to price-sensitive new participants, presenting potential structural changes in the market.
Historical Context and Future Outlook
Historically, the first 30-day realized losses since late 2023 resemble mid-cycle corrections rather than full bear market signals. The 2025 bear signals seem milder, with new buyers showing resilience. Potential outcomes may involve a prolonged consolidation phase as the cryptocurrency market stabilizes. Bitfinex Analysts noted, “Last time we were at these levels, Bitcoin eventually went on to outperform gold. This cross is worth watching as liquidity conditions evolve in 2026.”
