- Analysts observe significant shifts in Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle.
- Shift attributed to macroeconomic factors, not halving.
- Cycle lengthening with diminishing historic returns noted.
Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle appears broken, as analysts highlight shifting market dynamics and increased cycle length due to macroeconomic forces and institutional behavior.
The cycle shift impacts Bitcoin’s market timing and price predictions, with reduced alignment to halving events and ripple effects seen in Ethereum and major altcoins.
Recent commentary highlights that Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year cycle is shifting, as supported by on-chain data. Experts believe the cycle has ​elongated or possibly broken, with macroeconomic forces playing a significant role.
Cryptocurrency analysts, including Jesse Eckel and On-Chain Mind, suggest macro liquidity and institutional behavior are changing the cycle, emphasizing that prior reliance on the halving as a cycle driver is outdated.
The shift in the cycle impacts Bitcoin and related assets; ripple effects are seen across cryptocurrencies. Traditional capital flow narratives indicate changes as other cryptos like ETH show resilience against a cycle-synchronized pattern.
On-chain cycle models indicate an increase in cycle length, suggesting a lengthier structure than previous cycles, with a potential new high expected after this elongated cycle, impacting financial decisions and market strategies.
Insights show diminishing returns across cycles, with the time to achieve new highs increasing. This suggests a change in market timing expectations, affecting investor strategies and economic predictions for upcoming years.
Experts highlight potential shifts in financial, technological, and regulatory outcomes. Historical data indicate previous market patterns are unreliable for future planning, necessitating a reliance on new models and analyses.
Jesse Eckel, Crypto Analyst & Creator, “The idea that the Bitcoin halving drives the four-year cycle is the single biggest myth in all of crypto. And if you’re still using that myth as your map for this market, you’re about to walk off a cliff. The truth is, it was never the halving that drove the four-year cycle, but a liquidity echo from the 2008 financial crisis that was completely shattered after COVID policy response.” (YouTube, Oct 20, 2025) [1].
